CCondardo
Stealing Against A+ arms
May 15, 2017 at 08:01PM View BBCode
Historically ever since I started playing the game I have limited stealing and pretty much been last in the league in attempts. I wanted to start fiddling with a little more to take advantage but I'm having a heck of a time.
Few questions:
1) Is it ever worth stealing vs an A+ arm?
2) Right now I've pretty much narrowed my choices to just balancing the speed of the runner vs the catchers arm (played a bit with this balance). Is this a viable strategy?
My goal is to get to 70-75% success with ~120 attempts a season. Based on real life numbers this would be very average, which is all I'm seeking.
My starting lineup has the following speed breakdown: 2 A+, 2 A, 3 A-. Frankly I've never really analyzed a lineup like this so I don't even know if that's good, but with 4 guys up top with pretty solid speed I'd expect my average numbers to be attainable.
I've been measuring progress over 20-30 games at a time (might be too small of a sample size) but I'm closer to 60% success at the moment.
Any help is very much appreciated!
WillyD
May 15, 2017 at 08:12PM View BBCode
You can't decide to not steal vs. A+ arms without also not stealing vs A or A- arms.
I'm generally in the top 3 or 4 in both total steals, and in SB% when I'm competing.
I weigh the speed of the player at 67-70%, and the catcher arm at 20-23%. Ultra Aggressive with A+ speed, Aggressive with A, and Moderate or Conservative with A- speed. B+ will usually be conservative, or sometimes never steal if there are a lot of A+ arms and no arm unders A in my division. For B speed or less, I always do never steal. On the catcher arm setting, I keep it moderate or conservative on A arms, Ultra aggressive on B or lower arms.
I vary the weight, and the aggressive settings a bit depending on the arms in my league. Lots of A+ arms, or lots of A- arms could sway it in one direction or the other.
CCondardo
May 15, 2017 at 10:39PM View BBCode
Will, I had my text backwards. I meant to ask if it is worth stealing with non A+ (or even A) speed players.
~Corey
tworoosters
May 15, 2017 at 11:27PM View BBCode
My teams are rarely near the top of the league in steals, my teams usually steal 65-100 bases a year, but generally my teams will generally be around the 75% success rate .
I only run with red letter speed, anything below A- is in the "never steal" category, I am conservative against A arms and ultra aggressive against everything else, I weight it 50/50 speed/arm .
WillyD
May 16, 2017 at 12:28PM View BBCode
Originally posted by CCondardo
Will, I had my text backwards. I meant to ask if it is worth stealing with non A+ (or even A) speed players.
~Corey
Sure. You should be able to get about the same SB% with non A+ runners as you do with A+ runners.
bahstonwedsawks
May 23, 2017 at 08:16PM View BBCode
I set "never steal" to A- and below speed guys. I tinker with the other settings based on the other team's catcher, how close I think the game will be (1-run game vs blowout), which guys I'm starting that day and the percentage of my lineup that is A or A+ speed vs. the percentage that is not, whether I think I'll get a lot of baserunners via walk (low control opponent) or not, etc. A lot goes into it but the results are I'm usually 75%+ success rate and in the top 2-3 league-wide in attempts.
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